Bills Playoff Prospects: Revised Odds and Analysis of Remaining Schedule After Loss to Eagles


Bills Playoff Prospects: Revised Odds and Analysis of Remaining Schedule After Loss to Eagles and everything you need tob know about it

As the 2023 NFL season progressed, the Bills, initially seen as strong Super Bowl contenders, now find themselves battling to secure a spot in the playoffs. Their journey has been marred by heart-wrenching losses, and their Week 12 defeat in overtime against the Eagles stands out as a particularly crushing blow.

Entering the final quarter of the game against the Eagles with a 10-point lead, the Bills were poised for a much-needed statement win away from home. However, their grasp on victory slipped away as Philadelphia rallied, scoring 17 points in the fourth quarter, including Jake Elliott’s remarkable 59-yard field goal amid heavy rain that forced the game into overtime.


Despite the Bills’ opening possession in overtime resulting in a field goal, their defense couldn’t contain Jalen Hurts, the Eagles’ standout quarterback. Hurts orchestrated a decisive drive, culminating in a 12-yard rushing touchdown that left the Bills’ playoff aspirations hanging by a thread.

This loss not only adds to Josh Allen’s winless record of 0-6 in overtime but also drops the Bills to a 6-6 season record, significantly impacting their chances of winning the AFC East. With three losses in their last four games, they currently lag behind in the AFC wild-card race.

The Bills now find themselves in the 10th position in the AFC standings, trailing half a game behind a wild-card spot with five games remaining. Their upcoming Week 13 bye offers a moment to regroup and strategize for the critical matchups ahead.

Analyzing the AFC Playoff Picture, the Bills were on the cusp of playoff contention before their defeat to the Eagles. A victory could have propelled them into the playoff frame, but the loss sees them slipping further from contention.

Their fate in the playoff race remains uncertain, especially considering their current standing outside the top positions. The Bills’ remaining strength of schedule coupled with various projection models will likely determine whether they can rally in the remaining games to secure a postseason berth.


Updated AFC Playoff Picture

Before their matchup against the Eagles, the Bills were positioned outside the AFC playoff landscape. However, had they managed to secure the win in Philadelphia, they would have surged into playoff contention.

Unfortunately, their loss caused Buffalo to slide down to the 10th spot in the AFC standings, trailing by just a half-game from a coveted wild-card position, with five games left in the regular season. Notably, the Bills have a crucial bye in Week 13, providing them with an opportunity to rest, strategize, and regroup before their upcoming games.

This defeat was a missed chance for the Bills to bolster their playoff aspirations, leaving them on the outskirts of the postseason picture. Their situation remains precarious, with a tight race in the AFC, and the upcoming games will be pivotal in determining their fate in the playoff race.

Rank Team Record Win Pct. Tiebreaker
1 Chiefs 8-3 .727 Wins tiebreaker over MIA, BAL & JAX on win pct. in AFC games
2 Jaguars 8-3 .727
3 Dolphins 8-3 .727
4 Ravens* 8-3 .727
5 Steelers 7-4 .636 Wins tiebreaker over CLE on win pct. in AFC North games
6 Browns 7-4 .636
7 Colts 6-5 .545 Wins tiebreaker over DEN on win pct. in AFC games. Wins tiebreaker over HOU on H2H results
8 Texans 6-5 .545 Wins tiebreaker over DEN on win pct. in AFC games
9 Broncos 6-5 .545
10 Bills 6-6 .500



Bills strength of schedule

After their Week 13 bye, the Bills face a daunting schedule that will test their playoff ambitions. Their challenges begin in Week 14 with a tough road clash against the defending Super Bowl champions, the Kansas City Chiefs. This matchup promises to be a significant test for Buffalo’s postseason aspirations.

Moving forward, the Bills return home in Week 15 to host the Dallas Cowboys in Buffalo. The Cowboys’ visit poses another formidable challenge for the Bills as they aim to secure crucial victories in their playoff pursuit.

Following their home game against Dallas, the Bills embark on a journey to Los Angeles in Week 16 to confront the potent offense of the Chargers. Facing a high-powered Chargers team on the road adds another layer of difficulty to Buffalo’s late-season schedule.

As the regular season draws to a close, the Bills conclude with two pivotal AFC East showdowns. First, they’ll confront a New England Patriots team that handed them an earlier defeat this season. Then, in the final game of the regular season, they travel to Miami to take on the division-leading Dolphins, adding extra significance to what could be a crucial matchup in determining playoff standings.

The Bills’ remaining schedule presents a series of challenging matchups against strong opponents, making each game pivotal as they fight to secure a spot in the postseason. Their performances in these critical games will undoubtedly shape their playoff destiny.

Week Opponent Bills win odds
13 Bye NA
14 at Chiefs 34.2%
15 vs. Cowboys 59.6%
16 at Chargers 56.3%
17 vs. Patriots 86.9%
18 at Dolphins 32.5%


Bills playoff chances

Following the Bills’ loss to the Eagles and the Miami Dolphins’ convincing victory over the Jets in Week 12, Buffalo’s prospects of clinching the AFC East title have significantly dwindled.

At present, the Miami Dolphins sit at the summit of the division with an 8-3 record, establishing themselves as frontrunners. In contrast, the Bills find themselves in second place at 6-6, facing an uphill battle to challenge Miami’s position.

The Bills’ chances of claiming the AFC East crown have plummeted to a mere 2.5 per cent following their defeat against Philadelphia. This sharp decline in probability underscores the challenge Buffalo faces in surpassing the Dolphins and emerging as division champions.

The gap between the two teams in the divisional standings, combined with Buffalo’s recent setbacks and Miami’s strong performances, suggests that the Bills are facing an increasingly daunting task in their pursuit of the AFC East title. The road ahead appears challenging as they seek to close the gap and overcome the odds stacked against them.

Team xW-L Div% WC% Playoff% No. 1 seed% AFC% SB%
Dolphins 12-5 97.5% 1.7% 99.2% 19.5% 18.3% 7.5%
Bills 9-8 2.5% 21.8% 24.3% 0.0% 2.2% 0.9%
Jets 7-10 0.0% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Patriots 3-14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

The Bills’ recent challenges extend beyond their AFC East title aspirations, as their path to the playoffs has become increasingly precarious following their Week 12 loss to the Eagles.

Buffalo is now forecasted to conclude the season with a 9-8 record, falling short of a playoff berth by just one game. This unexpected turn of events marks a significant shift in their postseason trajectory.

As the season progresses, the Bills’ likelihood of securing a wild-card spot has declined to 21.8 percent, indicating a substantial decrease in their playoff probabilities. The combination of recent setbacks, coupled with the intensifying competition in the AFC, has put Buffalo in a challenging position to secure a coveted postseason spot.

With the margin for error narrowing, the Bills face mounting pressure in their remaining games as they strive to reverse this downward trend and salvage their chances of making it to the playoffs. Each upcoming matchup will be crucial in determining whether Buffalo can defy the odds and secure a spot among the postseason contenders.