Apple iPhone Shipments May Face ‘Significant Decline’ in 2024, Analyst Warns

Foldable Phone Trend and Huawei’s Revival in China Challenge Apple’s Dominance, Says Renowned Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo


According to a recent analysis by Ming-Chi Kuo, a top analyst from TF International Securities, Apple’s iPhone shipments are expected to experience a notable decline in 2024, primarily attributed to the rising popularity of foldable phones and Huawei’s resurgence in the Chinese market.

Despite Apple achieving the status of the leading smartphone vendor in China last year, Kuo’s supply chain survey suggests that the tech giant reduced shipments of crucial semiconductor components, resulting in an anticipated 15% year-over-year drop in iPhone shipments, totaling around 200 million units.

Kuo highlighted that Apple’s weekly shipments in China have witnessed a substantial decrease of 30% to 40% compared to the previous year, and this downward trend is anticipated to persist.


In his blog post, Kuo expressed the view that Apple might face the most significant decline among major global mobile phone brands in 2024. The resurgence of Huawei as a prominent smartphone maker, combined with the increasing preference for foldable phones among high-end users in the Chinese market, serves as pivotal reasons for the potential decline in iPhone shipments. Additionally, the emergence of new phone designs incorporating generative artificial intelligence is reshaping the dynamics of the mobile phone market.

Kuo noted that Samsung has experienced a surge in shipments of its new Galaxy S24 series by 5% to 10% due to higher-than-expected demand fueled by AI-powered features. In contrast, Apple has adjusted its shipment forecast for the iPhone 15 downward for the first half of 2024.

With no significant changes to the iPhone’s design expected until 2025 at the earliest, Kuo emphasized that Apple’s shipment momentum and ecosystem growth might diminish in the interim.

Apple is scheduled to report its quarterly results on Thursday, and analysts are anticipating modest revenue growth of 0.6% from the previous year, reaching $117.91 billion, according to LSEG, formerly Refinitiv. Average projections suggest single-digit growth for the remainder of the calendar year. As of Tuesday afternoon, Apple shares were down 1.7% at $188.46.